By working with scenarios of various different futures, the analytic focus shifts from trying to estimate what is most likely to occur towards questions of what are the consequences and most appropriate responses under different circumstances. Scenario processes help to integrate knowledge, provoke the imagination on unknowns, limit inconsistencies, create a unified language, structure common thoughts, and enable decision-making. From a learning perspective, the technique helps to understand how the world could unfold, and how that understanding can be incorporated into decision-making.
In this module 2, selected tools of the scenario process are applied to integrate diverse knowledge into consistent and plausible scenarios of the future. Different moderation techniques help to identify, discuss and rank driving forces. Finally, consistent scenarios are derived. A brief outlook explains how this method can be extended and applied in research, planning, in business, governmental and non-governmental organisations.