Author: Franz Embacher
according to a design by Iouli Andreev, based on a publication by James Hansen
If the summers between 1951 and 1980 of the Northern Hemisphere mainland are categorized in "cold", "average" and "hot" summers and if the same categories are applied to the summers between 2001 and 2011, a shift towards warmer summers becomes apparent. These changes are illustrated by creating a "climate die" for each period to simulate the natural year-to-year variability of these three summer categories.
- Two sides of the climate die, representing the period between 1951 and 1980, are used for each category.
- The climate die representing the period between 2001 and 2011, has half a side for cold, one side for average and four and a half sides for hot summers. Half a side is used for the new category of extremely hot summers.
The two climate dice can be used to discuss important problems and compare data without high statistical effort but nevertheless based on scientific data:
- What exactly does it mean if we say, "the summers are getting hotter"?
- How can higher temperatures in summer be quantified?
- Can the more frequent occurrence of hot summers during the last decade be explained by the natural variability of climate or is it an indication of global warming?
The following files are attached to the building block:
- Background information: BackgroundInformation_ClimateDice.pdf
- Implementation in the course: ClimateDice_Implementation.pdf
- Summer temperature distribution (graph): Distributions.pdf | Distributions.png | Distributions.gif
- Model of the climate dice that can be printed, cut out and stuck together: Models.pdf